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Link to FOMC Rate Announcement: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080130a.htm

In our last lesson we looked at how The Fed is expected to react at different points in the business cycle, and what the expected market movement will be as a result. In today’s lesson we are going to look at how the Fed goes about signaling to the market changes in their thinking on the direction of monetary policy, so we can begin to understand why markets react not only to Fed interest rate announcements but just as importantly to events which change the markets anticipation of how the Fed may react.

While we have simplified the situation in order to better understand the basics of how The Fed uses monetary policy, as you can probably tell by now, forecasting economic conditions and using monetary policy to try and manage those conditions is a very difficult process. The members of the FOMC are constantly analyzing economic data from across the country to try and gauge where the economy is in the business cycle and what if any monetary policy action is needed.

As we have touched on in previous lessons, the FOMC has 8 regularly scheduled meetings throughout the year where they meet to discuss current economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. It is at these meetings that decisions on what changes if any in monetary policy need to be made. Upon completion of these meetings a press released is issued an example of which you can see at the link below if you are watching this video on InformedTrades.com or in the description section if you are watching this video on Youtube.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20080130a.htm

As we’ve learned in previous lessons, what the FOMC decides to do with their target for Fed Funds Rate at this meeting has wide ramifications for the economy and therefore the markets. With this in mind the results of these meetings are closely followed by market participants. It is important to understand however that the market not only looks for whether or not the FOMC takes action on the Fed Funds Rate and by how much, but also for any clues in the Fed’s Statement as to what their bias may be for future rate decisions.

This is a very key point to understand because the markets are always trying to anticipate what is going to happen and therefore they move up and down depending on what people think will happen to rates going forward. Anything that comes out from this meeting or any thing else that is in line with what the market expects should have little or no effect on the market. Conversely anything that comes out which changes the markets forecasts on what if any Fed action will be, can cause drastic moves in the markets as participants react to this new information and markets adjust accordingly.

Duration : 0:7:14

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Duration : 0:30:3

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In yesterday’s lesson we began our discussion on Monetary Policy with a look at one of its primary components, interest rates. In today’s lesson we are going to continue this discussion with another look at how interest rates affect the economy and therefore the markets, and by introducing the institution which implements Monetary Policy, the Federal Reserve.

As we saw in our example yesterday, small movements in interest rates can have dramatic effects on the economy. Just as small changes in interest rates can dramatically increase the costs for individuals to own a home or borrow money to purchase other goods, they can also have a dramatic affect on the cost of doing business.

It is for this reason that when interest rates rise, making borrowed money more costly, that people will also be less likely to start or expand a business. This not only has an effect on the business owner themselves but filters throughout the entire economy as less businesses being started and expanded means less jobs, which means less people getting paychecks, which means less people spending money and on and on down the line. The opposite is of course also true for when interest rates fall and business owners take advantage of access to cheaper borrowed money.

In addition to interest rates affecting the stock market, interest rates also have direct and indirect affects on the bond, foreign exchange, and futures markets. Here are a couple of quick examples of this which we will expand on in later lessons:

The Bond Market: When interest rates rise the value of existing bonds fall as investors can now purchase the same bond with a higher interest rate and vice versa.

The Forex Market: When Interest rates it becomes more attractive from a yield standpoint to own the dollar against other currencies or to invest in interest bearing dollar based assets. This creates a demand for dollars which will many times cause the dollar to strengthen. The reverse is also true when interest rates fall.

The Commodities Market: When economies grow at a greater rate as a result of lower interest rates this will mean a greater demand for commodities so their value will rise and vice versa.

Duration : 0:5:12

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