Presented by Robert P. Murphy at “Austrian Economics and the Financial Markets,” the Mises Circle in Manhattan on 22 May 2010 in New York, New York. Includes an introduction by Mises Institute president Douglas E. French.
April 7 (Bloomberg) — James Reynolds, chief executive officer of Loop Capital Markets LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu about the financial crisis and prospects for interest rates. (This is an excerpt of the full interview. (Source: Bloomberg)
“I think interest rates forever in the US will be at zero. By zero I mean below the rate of inflation,” Marc Faber, editor & publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC Thursday. Faber also said that the Chinese economy will slow down, but avoid a crash.
March 31 (Bloomberg) — Brian Lancaster, head of asset-backed securities strategy at RBS Securities Inc., talks with Bloomberg’s Betty Liu about the outlook for the mortgage-backed securities market following the end of the Federal Reserve’s mortgage-bond purchase program.
Lancaster also discusses demand for the securities and the impact of the Fed’s exit on mortgage rates and bank lending. (Source: Bloomberg)
March 25 (Bloomberg) — Hugh Johnson, chairman and chief investment officer at Johnson Illington, talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar and Matt Miller about the outlook for the U.S. economy and stocks.
Johnson says the country’s recovery is not strong enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Larry Levin of Trading Advantage also speaks. (Source: Bloomberg)
As we have been saying for the past few recordings the Federal Reserve is ending it’s Mortgage Backed securities repurchase program. rates went up 0.25 – 0.375 percent in the past 24 hours. What’s going to happen now? What’s the recommended course of action? Watch the video.
Update – Fed losing control of bond market?… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5V-yqBn-2w
Conventional wisdom which suggests that rising interest rates crush stock prices and that falling rates stimulate the market.
I first published a version of this chart on a message board in 2007, when the Fed cut rates after a market selloff. I’m not unique in charting this relationship, nor in using it to challenge conventional thinking, but I do think that I have something to contribute to the discussion.
At that time, in 2007, the market was struggling and the consensus was that cutting rates would ’save the day’.
This chart suggested otherwise and was subsequently proved correct. Rates were slashed but the market continued to fall – just as it had done from the peak in 2000.
I’m afraid it is now time to look at this chart from the other perspective. Stocks have made a major move up, rates have bottomed but rumblings are being made that they will rise over coming months.
Clearly, interest rates and stocks have, during the period in question generally enjoyed a surprising relationship. There was a period from 1995 to 1998 where rates were falling while the market rose but taking simple tops and bottoms in 2000, 2003, and again in 2007 it certainly looks as though stocks and rates have a correlation – and that stocks lead the relationship, not the other way around as is generally touted.
Why would this be – surely rising rates should kill the market, and easing of rates simulate. Isn’t that what we’ve just seen in the recent rally as liquidity from 0% interest rates gushed into the market?
How the Fed ’sets’ interest rates…
http://mises.org/story/2728
Jim Cramer ranting to “cut rates and save the market”:
Before the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.) engaged in a verbal spar over whether raising federal funds would or would not cause mortgage rates to rise